Is India facing threat of Covid 3.0?

Our life is full of shocks, surprises, and surreal experiences. This generation knows this better than anyone else thanks to the coronavirus disease 2019. For many, coronavirus disease 2019 doesn't sound familiar though.

But it's the one we get when Covid-19 is expanded in full form. However, don't ever try to imagine the Covid-19 in its fullest form and force. Not long ago, we have seen that, the destruction it causes and the devastation it makes when India has been hit by the second wave of the Chinese-born Covid-19.

In my BizyLife column on April 18, 2020, I wrote that the Covid-19 would leave a debilitating effect on the world. Quoting a March 2020 report by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) which said 50 per cent of the world's population would eventually be infected with the deadly virus, I wrote then that the death toll triggered by the deadly pandemic would hover in the range of eight million to 23 million.

At that time, many dismissed this as mere over-exaggeration. But the result is there for all to see. So is the economic destruction and devastation of human life that the pandemic has caused in India and around the world by now. As of August 22, 2021, over 212 million people got infected by the deadly virus across the world. Of them, 4.4 million (44 lakh) people died. Shockingly, the United States of America (USA), which claims itself as the world's most advanced country in all spheres of life, suffered the most with total Covid cases going beyond 38.5 million and total deaths reaching over 6,44,800. India is at second place with over 32.4 million cases and as many as 4,34,399 deaths to date. These are official numbers.

The unofficial count is much higher, more so in India. Surprisingly, China, where the deadly virus originated triggering the global health crisis, is at 107th place in the list of countries with the most number of Covid cases! So far, it reported a total of 94,631 cases (does the number trigger any suspicion?) and just 4,636 deaths. If these numbers are true, China owes an answer to the world on the allegations that the novel coronavirus was developed in a Chinese laboratory. But I don't think that will happen anytime soon as China is unlikely to fall in line.

Nevertheless, the world seems to be a better place now when it comes to handling the deadly pandemic. So is India. We have multiple vaccines at our disposal. More and more people are getting vaccinated by the day. Millions of more people, who got infected but remained undetected, developed some kind of protection or immunity against the virus. Things should start turning rosier for the world in the days to come.

A few days ago, I received the second dose of the vaccine. In fact, I went to a nearby vaccination centre to check the rush and find out when could I get the second dose. As the centre was empty, I got myself inoculated within a minute. That was a great relief. A couple of months back, there was a mad rush for medicines, hospital beds, vaccines, and whatnot. Walking in and getting jab in a jiffy was an impossible task in those days. Not anymore, it seems. Is it because of vaccine hesitancy or lackadaisical attitude? If that is the case, the governments should be more proactive to avoid the kind of mess the country was in during the Covid 2.0.

Some experts warned of a third Covid wave hitting India soon. The State Bank of India's Research Wing, in its report in July, predicted that Covid 3.0 would start in August and peak in September. A joint study conducted by professors at IIT Hyderabad and IIT Kanpur also concluded that the third wave would descend on India in August itself.

But another research study carried out by Chennai-based Institute of Mathematical Sciences (IMS) revealed that 'R', or reproduction value, a key metric for measuring the spread of the Covid, had now fallen below 1 in the country. Reproduction value indicates the number of persons an infected person passes his infection to. The researchers from IMS say the falling R-value is a clear indication that Covid is ebbing away in India. What is going on around many of us also points in this direction.

Going by these signals and given the fact that the vaccination drive is on, it is very unlikely that the Covid 3.0, if it ever comes, will be as severe as its second avatar in India. But it is not easy to predict what is in store for us during these difficult times. So, we need to be extra cautious as children have not yet been inoculated till now. Further, a large chunk of India's population remains unvaccinated as only 13 crore people received two doses of vaccines so far and 32 crore got just the first dose. So, there is an urgent need to get a vaccine for children as early as possible. The faster India vaccinates its entire population the better. That's imperative to minimise the debilitating impact of Covid-19 if the virus gets more potent in future.

All said and done, going by what has been happening around the world since the early days of 2020, I count myself as lucky for being alive to write this article. All others who are alive now should feel so. Therefore, we should do some more better things in life before bidding farewell to this world. Hope that happens in the post-Covid world.

Last bite: Taliban is the buzz word these days as people around the world seem to be worried about the fate of Afghan people, especially women. Elan Musk, the mercurial founder of Tesla Motors, has a different worry. Sharing a photograph of Talibans on his Twitter handle recently, he pointed out that none of Talibans in the photo were wearing masks. Musk seems to be more worried about unmasked Talibans while Afghanistan is burning!